The Muslim Vote: Initial Election Analysis

July 5, 2024

Folks, only through the grace of The Almighty, without whom nothing is possible, you did it. We did it as a community. These results are unprecedented.

They send shockwaves through our political system.

The goal from the very start has been to empower the Muslim vote and send the main political parties a message: Muslims are united, in Muslim-heavy areas your majorities will be under threat, and there may even be an upset. Tonight we did that in spades.

5 independents (at the last check and possibly more) including the removal of Jonathan Ashworth who would have been in the cabinet. These include:

– Shockat Adam (Leicester South)
– Adnan Hussain (Blackburn)
– Iqbal Mohamed (Dewsbury)
– Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North)
– Ayoub Khan (Perry Barr) (not yet confirmed)

Major wins for Lib Dems and Greens who benefited from The Muslim Vote. They have won record seats compared to recent decades (71 and 4 respectively).

Huge majorities slashed for Wes Streeting, Roshanara Ali, Jess Philips, Keir Starmer just to name a few. These are major lessons in seats the Labour Party was otherwise expected to steamroll. Completely unprecedented.

Key majorities slashed:
– Bethnal Green and Stepney from 37,524 to 1689
– Ilford North has become marginal with 500 votes in it
– Birmingham Yardley has become marginal – 12720 to just 700 votes
– Birmingham Ladywood – 28582 to just 3400

The blemishes are:
– split votes cost us seats – we could have been looking at 10 seats.
– The Muslim community turnout was low – we could have won more and bigger if more people turned out.
– Unfortunately many in our community still decided to vote Labour for MPs who abstained on the ceasefire vote – despite the shadow of Gaza hanging over us. 

There is much more positive data we haven’t yet picked through but we will analyse it in coming hours and share with you all. 

Today, as predicted, Labour have secured a landslide. But in Muslim-heavy seats the seeds of our community’s future have been sown. It will not be a landslide in the coming elections – and that is when the message sent today will really resonate. 

Labour is projected to win landslide with a smaller share of the vote than Labour lost with in 2017. This is a sandcastle majority: when the tide changes so too do these results.  

The Muslim Vote, with a limited budget, in 6 months, and a large team of volunteers, has achieved something completely unprecedented.  👉 And this is just the beginning, not the end. This has always been a 5 election campaign. We will continue to build this political infrastructure for the future – this coordination is only going to improve over the next 5 years.

To all the naysayers who said the Muslim community can never unite, can never coordinate – tonight you had your answer.  

We take 1 step towards The Almighty, and then His help comes raining down. 

Now the hard work begins.

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